election live: Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in battle for White House
Projections from ABC election analyst Antony Green put Donald Trump on 259 Electoral College votes and he says "at this stage, all the numbers are leading towards a Trump victory" in the US election.
Follow the blog for live updates.
Trump has won the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina
This is happening over at the New York Times:
Remember: the winning candidate needs 270 electoral votesWhat does Antony Green say?You can find that here, but remember his prediction is different - he's prepared to call safe seats that US outlets aren't able to call until polls close right across the country.
All eyes on Wisconsin
Antony Green says the result of the election may come down to what happens in Wisconsin. He's predicting 259 electoral college votes for Donald Trump already (remember, Green can call seats which US networks can't yet, so some of his numbers are different to theirs).If they secured Wisconsin (which is looking likely), that's 10 more EC votes, bringing them to 269. At this point it would be a tie, and Donald Trump would only need one more vote. But even if he doesn't win that one extra vote, it then gets thrown to the floor of the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans. So they'll vote for President Trump.(Updated:)
Here's the latest from FiveThirtyEight
After the 2008 and 2012 elections, much was made of Nate Silver's predictive abilities - check out this write-up from Mashable.This year, Silver had been cautious - while his models did forecast a win for Mrs Clinton, he did say it was close and there were a range of possible outcomes - "including the chance of a Donald Trump victory".But as mentioned earlier, the fallout with regard to pollsters - and data analysts - will be interesting to watch going forward.Antony Green calls Nevada for Hillary
Hillary Clinton gets Nevada's six electoral college votes. That takes the Democrats up to 215.
ClintonNeck and neck in Pennsylvania
Back to Pennsylvania, which the Clinton campaign is watching closely, and New York Timeshas the vote evenly split.
If we take a closer look at how that vote is laid out, you can see Hillary Clinton is reliant on those suburbs around Philadelphia.
Trump ahead on popular vote numbers
It's the electoral college numbers that will determine who occupies the White House over the next four years - but if the winner was determined by the popular vote, Donald Trump would be looking the goods.
Exit polls echoing patterns seen in Brexit
Donald Trump repeatedly said during the election campaign he thought this vote was going to pan out the same way as Brexit, and it seems that may be partly true:Australia ready to work with new president: Bishop
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is talking to reporters in Canberra:More from my colleague Steph Anderson:- ABC political reporter Matt Doran has taken a look at the reaction to the close result in the United States from the Australian political scene.
(Updated:)
Possibility of a President Trump sinking in
US correspondent Michael Vincent is at Trump headquarters, where things are looking very interesting indeed. He had this to say just a moment ago:"Just have a look at the stock markets. They have shed."26 electoral college votes away, if Donald Trump wins this, Mexico and relations with the United States are going to be in for a very interesting time, let alone the rest of the world. NATO obviously in Europe - Trump has talked about allowing countries to get nuclear weapons. Let's see how that pans out. And also, of course, the trade war with China.
"There's a big, big sense here that people don't care. They just don't care. They want him to take back control of the system. This is, as one person said many months ago back in those early primary stages, this is the big middle finger to Washington and the establishment."It was always going be hard for Hillary Clinton to win essentially a third term for Barack Obama. George HW Bush won it back in 1988. Many said that that was really a third Reagan term, he was so popular.(Updated:)
CNN is calling Iowa for Trump
That's another 6 electoral votes for the Republican.
Democrats 'on the brink of weeping'
ABC correspondent Zoe Daniel is at Hillary Clinton's election night event in downtown New York and told ABC News 24 she can "barely describe how depressed the atmosphere is".
"They're just shell-shocked. And they just don't get it. I think what you've got to understand is that these Democrats who are in this room tonight probably never even had a conversation with a Donald Trump supporter," she said."They just do not understand what's happened. They're frightened. They're worried. They're concerned about things like the economy, about immigration control. The treatment of women. All those sorts of things that have come up during the campaign."Trump will make a great president: Giuliani
Former New York City mayor and key Trump backer Rudy Giuliani has spoke to the ABC'sMichael Vincent about how he's feeling:
POLLS CLOSING in mainland Alaska
We're coming up on 12am eastern time, and almost all polling stations are now closed. There will still be a few open in the western islands of Alaska, for those final few stragglers...
Current mood at Clinton HQ...
- One Nation leader Pauline Hanson sounds confident of a Donald Trump victory...
(Updated:)
Did the pollsters get it wrong?
Kellyanne Conway is Mr Trump's campaign manager:Certainly in Britain after the Brexit referendum, a lot of questions were asked of the pollsters who suggested the 'Remain' vote would triumph.There's now mutterings about what was being predicted before today's vote. Even if Mrs Clinton goes on to win - expect more on the role of the pollsters into the future.American political analyst Thomas Frank speaking to ABC News 24:Early results for Michigan, Wisconsin look good for Trump
We heard from Washington DC bureau chief Zoe Daniel earlier about which states Clinton's campaign were looking at. Pennsylvania is the main state they're watching - my fellow bloggerLuke Royes brought you an update on that state a few minutes ago. But Daniel also mentionedMichigan and Wisconsin as two others the Clinton campaign are watching. It's still early in terms of the votes counted there, but this is where things stand:
Live results update
Here's how things are looking on the live results map. Still a lot of red, but remember, a lot of those geographically larger states have fewer electoral college votes, so the colour you can see doesn't necessarily represent a winner. Donald Trump is leading in electoral college votes at the moment but things are still very, very close.
- The strong Latino pre-poll turnout in Nevada was being seen as a good sign for Hillary Clinton in that state.
Those reports look like they are being substantiated by early results from that state.
Live from Clinton HQ
Our Washington DC bureau correspondent Zoe Daniel is at the Jacob K Javits Convention Centre, where Hillary Clinton is holding her election night party. Daniel describes the mood there as "a little bit nervous".
The impact of the GFC
ABC host Sara James offered these thoughts about how the past decade has been very different in Australia and the States.(Updated:)
The race for Pennsylvania is going down to the wire with the lead seesawing between Clinton and Trump every few minutes.Results from counties near Philly will be crucial for Mrs Clinton.
The state of play
States are getting called left, right and centre now. Obviously we'll bring the key results to you here in the blog, but you can also keep track with this simple breakdown of who's won which states.
The waiting game is all too much for a Hillary Clinton supporter as another state is called in Donald Trump's favour. (Reuters: Jason Reed)
(Updated:)
Hillary Clinton takes Colorado
Some good news for the Democratic candidate - she's taken the key swing state of Coloradoand its nine electoral votes.It's become an attainable state for Democrats in recent years thanks to shifting demographics.Hillary Clinton tried to woo a surge in Latino voters and the state's college-educated white voters while Donald Trump repeatedly made pitches to Colorado's large military population and swathes of rural voters.This from CNN:
(Updated:)
John McCain re-elected
It's Senator McCain's sixth term.Remember, Americans were also voting for seats in Congress - some in the Senate and the entire House of Representatives.The Republicans will hold onto its majority control of the House - and Speaker of the House,Paul Ryan, has kept his job.Meanwhile, in the Australian Parliament...
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